CDC Lowers Flu Peak Forecast, Warns of Post-School Return Epidemic

Taipei: Taiwan's Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Tuesday announced a revision of its estimate for medical visits during this season's influenza epidemic peak, reducing the figure from 130,000 to 120,000. This adjustment comes as the rise in domestic flu cases has been slower than initially anticipated.

According to Focus Taiwan, the CDC is maintaining vigilance to see if influenza B might instigate another wave of infections following the reopening of schools. CDC Director-General Lo Yi-chun highlighted that, historically, this strain tends to be more widespread in the spring.

In the period from January 18 to 24, there were 110,501 medical consultations for influenza-like illnesses, marking a 3.9 percent increase from the previous week, as reported by CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Kuo Hung-wei during a routine press briefing. Between January 20 and 26, 14 new cases of severe influenza complications were identified, along with five related fatalities. This brings the current flu season's total to 472 severe cases and 93 deaths since it commenced in October 2025.

The CDC had originally projected that Taiwan would enter the epidemic phase this week, coinciding with the Lunar New Year holiday. However, Lo noted that while the number of medical visits is nearing the epidemic threshold, it has not yet reached the required level. Whether Taiwan will officially enter the epidemic phase this week, next week, or around the Lunar New Year is still uncertain.

Lo also mentioned that the past week saw the lowest number of flu-related medical visits for the same period in four years and marked the latest entry into the epidemic phase within this timeframe. He attributed this to the protective effects of flu vaccination and residual immunity from infections between September and November.

With many individuals expected to travel abroad during the holiday period, Lo advised caution, noting that while flu cases in Japan and South Korea peaked in December 2025 and are now declining, there has been a surge in norovirus infections in South Korea. He recommended that travelers ensure thorough heating of spring water, groundwater, shellfish, and seafood before consumption.

Regarding vaccination efforts, CDC Deputy Director-General Lin Ming-cheng reported that 6.694 million flu vaccine doses have been administered, with approximately 133,000 doses still available. Additionally, 1.637 million COVID-19 vaccine doses have been dispensed.