Taipei: China’s plan to deploy the new hypersonic Dongfeng-17 (DF-17) ballistic missiles at a People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) base near Taiwan is raising concerns among defense experts, who believe this move may target U.S. airbases and ships in the Western Pacific while also posing new threats to Taiwan.
According to Focus Taiwan, the deployment of these missiles is part of China’s broader military strategy, as highlighted in a recent article in The New York Times. The article referenced the 2024 U.S. Department of Defense report on China’s military power, which notes a significant increase in China’s missile stockpile to 3,500, marking a 1.5-times increase from four years ago. While the exact number of missiles aimed at Taiwan remains unclear, the PLARF Brigade 616 base in Jiangxi Province, located approximately 579 kilometers from Taiwan, has seen rapid expansion since 2020 and is now preparing for the DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missiles.
Satellite imagery reveals that China began leveling farmland for the missile facility in 2020, and by 2021, it was nearly complete. Recent images show new structures at the site, including a potential garage for mobile missile launchers. Despite this preparation, experts like Eric Heginbotham from MIT’s Security Studies Program suggest that the DF-17, with its estimated range of 1,500-2,500 kilometers, is not specifically designed to strike Taiwan but rather to target U.S. vessels and airbases in the region if conflict arises.
Heginbotham argues that while the DF-17 might not be the optimal choice for attacks on Taiwan, it could still be used against Taiwan under certain circumstances, such as if China runs low on other missile types or if the United States does not intervene. This potential use mirrors Russia’s deployment of Zircon missiles against unexpected targets in Ukraine, he noted.
Kao Chih-jung, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, concurs with this assessment. He suggests that the DF-17 would ideally target U.S. air bases in the Western Pacific, like Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. However, if China’s short-range ballistic missiles underperform in an assault on Taiwan, or if Taiwan successfully defends against initial missile strikes, the DF-17 might be deployed for such purposes.
Kao further explains that China currently possesses around 1,000 short-range missiles targeting Taiwan, with about 300 launchers capable of executing four waves of attacks. If these attacks fail to neutralize Taiwan’s missile sites and air bases, China might resort to using the DF-17 in a fifth wave. Such a scenario would divert some missiles intended for U.S. targets to an attack on Taiwan, potentially offering an advantage to U.S. forces advancing toward the Taiwan Strait.
To counter PLA’s missile threats effectively, Kao emphasizes the need for Taiwan to launch a “deep counterstrike” against China’s missile bases while maintaining a robust defense posture. Taiwan currently possesses several missile types capable of striking the Chinese mainland, including the Yunfeng hypersonic cruise missile and the Hsiung Feng IIE, among others, developed by the National Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST). The NCSIST is also developing a new surface-to-surface ballistic missile with an estimated range of 1,000 kilometers.
Kao underscores the importance of significantly enlarging Taiwan’s missile arsenal to bolster self-defense and strike capabilities against the rapidly expanding PLARF. He estimates that a wave of deep counterstrike would require at least 170 missiles to neutralize key targets, such as Dongfeng missile bases and air defense systems along China’s southeastern coast.
Heginbotham adds that Taiwan should diversify its responses to a Chinese military attack, employing strategies like dispersion and hardening of critical military assets, alongside a versatile mix of weapons.
In response to inquiries about China’s DF-17 deployment, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense deputy spokesperson Major General Chiao Fu-chun stated that the ministry is closely monitoring PLARF’s deployments using joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. Chiao emphasized that Taiwan’s military possesses early-warning systems and multi-layered air-defense capabilities to counter various aerial threats, and it continues to develop response measures based on evolving enemy activity.
