Beijing: China’s rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal have sparked concerns among defense experts about the possibility of “nuclear blackmail” or even nuclear warfare should Western nations intervene in a conflict over Taiwan.
According to Focus Taiwan, at a recent military parade in Tiananmen Square, China showcased three nuclear-capable missiles, marking a significant development in its military capabilities.
The parade featured the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, and the DF-61 surface-to-surface intercontinental missile. Analysts have described this as a potential Chinese ‘nuclear triad,’ indicating the ability to launch nuclear weapons from the air, land, and sea. Previously, China was not capable of conducting airborne nuclear attacks. A report by The New York Times quoted Kelly Grieco, a Stimson Center senior fellow, stating that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would “have a nuclear dimension,” particularly if the United States intervenes.
The report also noted an increase in missile launchers at the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force’s 611th Brigade base in Anhui Province, where nuclear-capable Dongfeng-26 missiles are deployed. With a range of 5,000 kilometers, these missiles can reach U.S. air bases in the Asia-Pacific region. Eric Heginbotham from MIT’s Security Studies Program highlighted that China’s advanced tactical nuclear weapons, such as the DF-26, offer a “more credible” deterrent than strategic warheads, suggesting Beijing could potentially employ them in response to a U.S. tactical nuclear strike.
The development of these capabilities allows China to conduct conventional warfare with reduced fear of a U.S. nuclear response, according to Heginbotham. This shift in strategy reflects a move away from China’s previously purely strategic retaliatory capability, which would have been considered a “suicidal” move due to the risk of an overwhelming U.S. counterstrike.
Shu Hsiao-huang, from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, pointed out that China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and enhanced strike capabilities may lead to changes in its ‘no first use’ nuclear policy. The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2024 report estimates that China had over 600 operational nuclear warheads last year, projected to exceed 1,000 by 2030.
Shu also emphasized China’s potential confidence in its homeland defenses against nuclear retaliation as a factor that might influence its decision to use nuclear weapons. He cited the U.S.’ planned “Golden Dome” missile defense system, which could protect the U.S. homeland from Chinese nuclear attacks and limit Beijing’s nuclear coercion abilities.
Yang Tai-yuan, chairman of the Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation, warned that these developments could make the U.S. more hesitant to send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. He suggested that China could threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against major powers that intervene in its regional conflicts, echoing tactics learned from Russia during the Ukraine war.
Yang urged for serious consideration of Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, emphasizing the importance of being prepared to defend independently rather than solely relying on potential U.S. intervention.
