Taipei: A Taiwanese military expert on Wednesday rejected a China studies scholar’s claim that Beijing could impose a naval blockade on Taiwan by sending a few submarines into waters around the island country, questioning how long such a blockade could be sustained.
According to Focus Taiwan, during an Oct. 1 symposium in Washington, D.C., China studies scholar Willy Lam suggested that “all the Chinese need to do is send four or five submarines to impose a naval blockade of the island.” Lam, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, speculated that if Chinese President Xi Jinping orders “a big move on Taiwan,” the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would impose an effective naval blockade “which they could do quite easily.”
Speaking at a Taipei seminar held by National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, Alexander Huang of Tamkang University addressed Lam’s claim, questioning the feasibility of sustaining such a blockade. Huang noted that while a nuclear-powered submarine might remain in position for an extended period, logistical challenges such as crew needs for sustenance and rest make an indefinite blockade implausible.
Huang emphasized that the critical question is the sustainability of the blockade, as it cannot last indefinitely. He also pointed out the potential challenges Chinese submarines might face in returning to home ports, as other nations’ submarines could obstruct their passage.
Furthermore, Huang highlighted Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, asserting that Taiwan is not defenseless against such threats. He speculated that prolonged pressure would likely trigger international intervention, possibly leading to defensive actions such as a blockade of the Strait of Malacca by the United States, impacting Chinese trade routes.
Lam’s comments also prompted swift responses from Taiwanese officials. Taiwan’s representative to the U.S., Alexander Yui, countered Lam’s assertions at the symposium, emphasizing the strong determination of the Taiwanese people to defend their nation. He cited the recent voluntary mobilization of tens of thousands in Hualien County for flood recovery efforts as evidence of this resolve.
In Taipei, Liang Wen-chieh, deputy head and spokesperson of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, also dismissed Lam’s claim during a regular news briefing. Liang argued that if a blockade were as simple as Lam suggested, Taiwan’s extensive efforts in force building and readiness would be rendered ineffective.
