Taipei: China's recent military exercises around Taiwan were strategically designed to elicit minimal response from the United States, diminish U.S. credibility, and retaliate against Taiwan for its recent arms purchases from Washington, according to U.S.-based analysts.
According to Focus Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted two days of military exercises, code-named "Justice Mission-2025," on Monday and Tuesday in areas surrounding Taiwan. These exercises included live-fire drills in five designated maritime and airspace zones on the second day. Notably, several PLA Navy vessels and Chinese coast guard ships briefly entered waters within Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone, heightening tensions in the region.
Ryan Fedasiuk, a former U.S. State Department China policy adviser and now with the American Enterprise Institute, highlighted three main objectives behind the drills. Firstly, Beijing aimed to re-frame routine exercises as a response to recent U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian described the drills as "severe punishment" for forces seeking Taiwan independence and criticized Washington for "arming Taiwan," referring to the US$11 billion in arms sales approved earlier this month.
Fedasiuk noted the timing of the exercises, 11 days after the arms sale announcement, was intended to portray them as a justified countermeasure to U.S. provocation, despite the sale being a routine implementation of U.S. policy under the Taiwan Relations Act. The second objective was to provoke a minimal U.S. response by holding the drills during a U.S. holiday period, ensuring Washington would struggle to coordinate an immediate reply.
Fedasiuk also mentioned that Beijing calculated U.S. President Donald Trump's commitment to maintaining a mutually beneficial economic relationship with China would deter a strong response. The muted U.S. reaction could undermine global confidence in U.S. resolve, sending a message to Taiwan that American support is conditional and resistance is futile.
Richard Bush, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and now a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, emphasized that China's primary motivation was to punish Taiwan for its larger arms purchases from the United States. He suggested that Beijing hopes the Taiwanese public will feel less secure due to their government's actions.
Bush also indicated that the exercises provided the PLA with an opportunity to prepare for a potential military campaign against Taiwan, although he was uncertain if comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Japan's potential response to an attack on Taiwan influenced Beijing's actions.
In response, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense activated an emergency response center and launched combat-readiness drills. They reported that PLA naval and coast guard vessels briefly entered waters within Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone and were closely monitored. Meanwhile, President Trump stated he was aware of the exercises but not concerned, noting that China has conducted naval drills in the region for years.