Taipei: The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), a prominent think tank, announced on Tuesday that Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to exceed 10 percent in 2026. This optimistic outlook is attributed to a strong export performance propelled by the current boom in artificial intelligence (AI).
According to Focus Taiwan, TIER President Chang Chien-yi shared insights at an economic forum organized by the think tank, indicating that an updated GDP growth forecast will be released on Friday. TIER had earlier revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.56 percent in April, an increase of 3.51 percentage points from its January estimate.
While TIER's forecast is optimistic, it is even more positive than the 9.64 percent growth projection released by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics in late May. Meanwhile, Academia Sinica recently adjusted its GDP growth forecast from 3.71 percent to 10.16 percent, marking it as the highest among major local research institutions.
Chang attributes the robust economic forecast to the global surge in demand for AI applications, which has opened up significant business opportunities. The AI boom has led to full utilization of production capacity for AI-related chips, including graphics processing units (GPUs) and tensor processing units (TPUs).
Additionally, the demand for AI services, such as those provided by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), is high. TSMC's advanced integrated circuit (IC) assembly services, especially its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) technology, are experiencing tight supply. In response to the escalating demand, TSMC recently increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to a range of US$60.0 billion to US$64.0 billion, up from the previous estimate of US$52.0 billion to US$56.0 billion.
Chang expressed confidence that the AI-driven business opportunities would persist, predicting continued economic growth for Taiwan into 2028. Despite recent fluctuations in AI stock markets due to fears of an AI bubble, Chang reassured that the AI industry would maintain its growth trajectory.
At the TIER economic forum, Minister of Economic Affairs Kung Ming-hsin highlighted Taiwan's potential to become a leading provider of both AI hardware and services. The government aims to nurture 500,000 AI experts by 2040, aiming to integrate AI technology across all business sectors and enhance Taiwan's global market competitiveness.
Source: Focus Taiwan