Taipei: Chinese President Xi Jinping's ongoing purge of senior military leaders, most recently targeting top general Zhang Youxia, could help him consolidate power and potentially increase the risk of strategic miscalculation over Taiwan, according to experts. Chinese authorities announced investigations into Zhang, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli, head of the CMC Joint Staff Department, for "serious violations of discipline and law," a phrase commonly used to denote corruption or political disloyalty.
According to Focus Taiwan, these investigations are the latest in a series of senior-level purges that have significantly reduced the CMC's leadership roster, leaving only Xi and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin, who oversees the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Rocket Force, in their posts. This situation underscores ongoing turbulence within the PLA's top command.
The ousting of Zhang Youxia, a princeling like Xi, suggests that Xi places little value on personal connections, even among elite networks. This pattern has been seen in his previous removals of CMC generals, as noted by Lin Ying-yu, an associate professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies. Lin likened Xi's approach to Joseph Stalin's rule by fear in the Soviet Union, highlighting that prioritizing political loyalty over expertise could become a mindset among PLA officials.
Sharing a similar view, Chieh Chung, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, stated that the purges have left many key positions in major institutions in the hands of junior lieutenant generals. These rapid promotions from major general to lieutenant general often result in a lack of seasoned experience necessary to manage major sudden crises. This creates a leadership gap within the military, which, combined with an intensifying culture of fear, significantly heightens the risk of strategic miscalculations, especially in the Taiwan Strait.
The degradation of the PLA's leadership may also cast a shadow over the armed force's combat effectiveness. Chieh mentioned that the purges could create a "bottleneck" in PLA combat development over the next few years, and if the crackdown spreads to operational units, it could severely damage the armed force's overall combat effectiveness.
Tsai Wen-hsuan, a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of Political Science, stated that the military purge provides a "short-term benefit" to Taiwan by inevitably degrading the PLA's immediate combat effectiveness. Xi appears to prioritize neutralizing immediate internal threats over the PLA's operational capabilities at this stage, seeking stability as he moves toward securing a historic fourth term at the 21st Party Congress in 2027.
Yang Tai-yuan, chairman of the Secure Taiwan Association Corporation, argued that Xi is prioritizing power consolidation over immediate PLA combat readiness as he prepares for another 5-10 years in power. Despite purges that could unsettle the PLA, Xi is confident the military will remain under his control and continue serving as a stable political tool.