Taipei: The National Development Council (NDC), Taiwan's premier economic planning body, has set an ambitious target for the nation's GDP growth, aiming for a 4.56 percent rise by 2026. This announcement was made by the NDC's head, Yeh Chun-hsien, during a news conference on Tuesday.
According to Focus Taiwan, two main factors are expected to drive this growth. Firstly, the United States has verbally agreed to reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20 percent to 15 percent. Secondly, global cloud service providers are anticipated to increase capital expenditure, benefiting from the ongoing AI boom and bolstering Taiwan's AI-related exporters.
In November, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) revised its own forecast for 2026 growth, increasing it from a previous estimate of 2.81 percent in August to 3.54 percent. The DGBAS plans to release an updated GDP growth forecast on February 13. Several economic institutions, including the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), have also adjusted their predictions, with the CIER forecasting a 4.14 percent growth rate for 2026.
Yeh noted that the NDC has already established a baseline growth forecast of 4.11 percent for 2026. This figure factors in Taiwan's export and investment growth, supported by increased capital expenditures from global cloud service providers, as well as assessments of global economic trends and international crude price fluctuations.
Yeh expressed confidence that Taiwan's economy will grow by more than 4 percent this year. The NDC is committed to boosting private consumption, public investment, private investment, and net exports to further enhance growth momentum by an additional 0.45 percentage points, reaching the 4.56 percent target for 2026.
Government spending plans include increased defense spending and investments in the military industry, while private investment will focus on innovative AI projects, urban renewal initiatives, and transforming Taiwan into an asset management hub in Asia. The government also intends to build a "non-Red" supply chain, reducing dependence on China, and strengthening export momentum under the Special Statute on Strengthening the Resilience of the Economy, Society, and National Security in Response to International Developments.
Yeh projected that Taiwan's GDP per capita could surpass US$40,000 in 2026 if the economy grows at a rate of 2 percent. With GDP growth expected to exceed 4 percent this year, the NDC forecasts Taiwan's GDP per capita to range between US$41,708 and US$43,897, surpassing the DGBAS's projection of US$40,951.