Scholars Divided on U.S. Military Support for Taiwan Under Trump Presidency.

TAIPEI: With Donald Trump re-elected President of the United States, Taiwanese scholars are expressing mixed opinions on whether his incoming administration would commit U.S. military forces to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. One day after the confirmation of the Republican candidate's victory, foreign affairs, cross-strait, and defense experts gathered at a seminar held in Taipei by National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Institute of International Relations, to discuss the potential impact on Taiwan, with Trump set to return to the White House early next year. According to Focus Taiwan, many describe Trump as highly unpredictable, but his logic is perceived as "actually very predictable" because he "does not want the U.S. to be taken advantage of," whether in terms of trade or regional conflicts, said Alexander Huang, an associate professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies. Trump has often stated that he did not deploy U.S. troops to fight overseas during his previous presidential term, Huang added, noting that the current Russia-Ukraine war, the conflicts involving Israel, Hamas and Iran, as well as the four large-scale Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, did not occur during his term from 2017 to 2021. Huang further explained that those four years might have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic or Trump's distinctive approach as U.S. president in interacting with other major world powers, which contributed to the absence of large-scale military conflicts. However, he stated that if a military conflict were to occur in the Taiwan Strait, "the U.S. must deploy military forces, but the positioning and distance of those forces relative to Taiwan would be uncertain," and U.S. forces would likely not fight alongside Taiwan's military due to the lack of formal diplomatic ties, alliances, joint exercises, and language barrier. Contrastingly, Yen Chen-shen, an adjunct research fellow at NCCU's Institute of International Relations, ar gued that during Trump's election campaign, he already "planted many seeds indicating that he does not intend to assist Taiwan." Yen cited Trump's remarks about the challenges in defending Taiwan due to its distance from the U.S., and criticism of Taiwan for issues like stealing the U.S. chip industry and not paying a protection fee, which could be used to justify not assisting Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Lin Cheng-yi, a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American Studies, emphasized that a key moment Trump must address during his upcoming term would be the year 2027, marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. Lin noted that Trump has made different statements regarding Taiwan, suggesting that U.S. forces would bomb Beijing if China attacked Taiwan, while also mentioning that Xi knows he is "crazy," implying that a Chinese invasion might not occur under his presidency. Finally, Kou Chien-wen, a distinguished professor at NCCU's D epartment of Political Science, commented on Beijing's perspective, saying the basic structure of U.S.-China confrontation would not change, but the approach may be adjusted. Kou noted that Beijing's fundamental stance on sovereignty and security issues will likely remain unchanged, with potential flexibility in trade depending on whether concessions can stabilize U.S.-China relations.