U.S.-China Tech Rivalry Hinges on Innovation and Industrial Power: Experts

Taipei: The outcome of the technology competition between the United States and China will depend not only on artificial intelligence development but also on the manufacturing capacity and supply chains needed to support it, experts said at a forum in Taipei on Saturday. According to Focus Taiwan, at an event hosted by the Taiwan-based think tank DSET, "Chip War" author Chris Miller highlighted the distinct "theories of power" pursued by the U.S. and China. Washington is focusing on innovation and AI leadership, while Beijing emphasizes industrial capacity and manufacturing scale. Miller noted that despite the U.S. leading in capabilities, China's leverage in the traditional economy is evident through restrictions on rare earth exports affecting countries like the U.S. and Japan. Miller emphasized that the U.S. and Taiwan are betting on AI-driven innovation. However, he pointed out that AI's reliance on critical industrial inputs gives China a significant advantage. The coming years will test which theory o f power will prove more effective. Chris McGuire, a senior fellow for China and Emerging Technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations, argued that export controls are crucial in slowing down China's AI economy. He mentioned that restrictions on advanced chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment have preserved a technological advantage for the U.S. and its allies. However, he warned about existing loopholes, including chip smuggling and cloud-based access to computing power. McGuire advocated for closer alignment between Taiwan and the U.S. on export-control enforcement, stating that both share a strong interest in maintaining their lead in advanced technologies. David Feith, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, emphasized Taiwan's irreplaceable role in AI hardware manufacturing. Despite efforts to expand semiconductor production in the U.S., investments by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) in Arizona have strengthened supply-chain resilience. Yet, the U.S. remains heavily dependen t on Taiwan's semiconductor ecosystem. Feith added that advanced chips manufactured in Arizona still rely on Taiwan for advanced packaging and other critical processes, challenging the notion that the U.S. could soon eliminate its dependence on Taiwan.